As we predicted in Feb, March, May, August and October, the memory market is recovering in Q4 2023.
Reminder, we predicted this before it even bottomed and we are using the same cycle graph.
The reason is that the market always behaves in cycles and the only real movement is inventory and price... you can see all the details on our website and 2023 FMS presentation which quantifies causes and effects. www.mkwventures.com
Summary of downturn: the Total bits sold in 2020-23 is Exactly what we expected in 2019... there was no drop. Customers just bought them all in 2020-early 2022. For some reason, no one noticed inventory build at customers that was clear (See earnings report transcripts for Q2 2022).
So where are we now?:
- Memory prices are recovering
- Since they are recovering, people are incentivized to buy and build inventory now.
- the recovery will get sharp until we reach profitability
- It is not clear how profitable we will get. That depends on inventory shortages in 2024/5 which we track.
- If we fall into the trap that [enter hype technology or geopolitical event] is changing long term demand, the 2026 crash will be bad as well.
- DRAM bits will grow 15-18%. NAND Bits will grow 20-25% long term. Beware when people say "DRAM bits grew 15% in Q4 2024, We don't see any evidence of double ordering"
- Obviously there will be a downturn in 2026. We help you predict whether it will be Minor (20% revenue drop) or Major (50% revenue drop)
- We can advise memory companies on how to meet demand without getting played by the customers and causing oversupply
- Call or text us to discuss more and learn how you can d
Mark Webb
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