Intel Foundry Forecast Dec 2023 (Mark Webb, MKW Ventures
Consulting, www.mkwventures.com)
We have looked at Intel Plans, Customer reactions, and
competitor reactions to develop a forecast for Intel Foundry
Today, Intel IFS includes sales of mask making products and
services in its foundry revenue. It appears this is actually the largest
revenue segment in IFS per Intel 10Q reports. Intel also includes packaging and
assembly services for external companies.
Intel actual wafer sales to other companies (wafer foundry)
is quite small today. We estimate $100-200M per quarter. This would put them as
the 15-20th largest wafer sales foundry in the world.
In the future, Intel has plans for technologies and is sampling
with many companies. If they execute, they will have leading edge technologies
and capacity to ramp them.
We expect all major customers to move slowly with small
portion of foundry allocation to Intel until 2027 timeframe. Many are planning
to use Intel as a backup or to provide price negotiation pressure. TSMC is a
dominant force in foundry and this is not changing. TSMC considers Intel a
large customer and not a threat in foundry. They may or may not be correct.
In our model, Intel always spends 2x the dollars outsourcing
to TSMC as they receive in wafer foundry revenue from others.
The reported accounting will all change next year. Intel
will try to report fab business as independent business selling to Intel BUs. They
will quickly become a top 3 foundry. They will adjust the allocated cost to
achieve the goals they want (ie: Allocate low cost to BUs to compare for TSMC
foundry work.
The forecast for Intel External wafer sales is below: Note
that this is based on Intel plans. If they do not execute or gain share, then
they will go to the “Plan B” (Call us for what Plan B is)
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