Future Scenarios for Emerging Memory Markets (FMS 2025)

 

Future Scenarios for Emerging Memory Markets

OMEM-202-1: Emerging Memory Technologies. Wed 8/6 9:45AM

We show the status today for memories (RRAM, MRAM, PCM, FRAM) and what will happen in the near future. Spoiler alert, There is only ONE new memory that COULD be a major impactor in the next 3-5 years. We show how to monitor progress on all memories.

 

Key Takeaways:

1. The “Classic” emerging memories RRAM, MRAM, PCM, FE RAM are running and being used in low volume (<$100M Sales) markets as discrete products. They are also used in foundry technologies replacing eFLASH
2. The “New Breakthrough” emerging memories are quite early in their development cycle (we give exact timelines all memories must go through in our product life cycle report). Single cell reports with great latency and 10^9 type cycling levels. Until we see a 1Mbit+ array with all performance and bit error rates, These are still  8 years from any possible volume and most likely will not be shipping any units.
3. As predicted, the only technology with a possibility sell $1B worth of units in annually in 5 years must be close to (90% the same steps) of an existing NAND or DRAM process. It must also be within 50% of the cost of the technology.
• This appears to be the plan with FE NVDRAM as reported by Micron in technical papers and more recently by FMC in announcements. All companies are working on this technology
• FE technology, tied to a DRAM process, with tools similar to other high volume tools
• The key is to see detailed array data and then a real product we can buy ASAP
4. A new way to look at this revenue is by submarket, not to lump all emerging memory into one market. We break out these new memory markets

Summary: MRAM, RRAM, PCM and small FE arrays emerged a while ago. “New” memories are far from showing the required large array data. FE DRAM has large memory data and the manufacturability needed to become a high volume product

 Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com

 

Intel Capacity by Fab Through 2030 (MKW VENTURES CONSULTING)

 

UPDATED: Intel Fab Capacity Expansion Scenarios (Option A)

One potential scenario based on our model and changes to capex and timing in last 6 months.

• Fab 52 runs production in 2026, Fab 62 year after
• Ohio starts production in 2028
• After delays, this is aligned to graph shown by technology at Foundry Day
• Assumes EUV tools installed in ~2026 in some 10/7 Fabs to support 4/3 Ramp.
• *We add new issues to monitor given the Intel restructuring 
• *Also what is the plan for 20A and Arrow Lake? Can they ramp another Fab?

• 20A/18A/14A fabs are D1+Fab52+Fab62+OHIO in this model

We have addition scenarios based on TSMC use and whether Intel Foundry starts to ramp. This is especially important to track given Intel's restructuring

Also we can discuss cost and revenue by Fab... including JV SCIP impact

Call or text to discuss.

We will be a Future of Memory and Storage (FMS) in Santa Clara Aug 5-8

Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com

New and Emerging Memory Technology Status/FMS 2024

 

Status of New and Emerging Memories (Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting LLC)

We have a Future of Memory and Storage/Flash Memory Summit Paper that we are presenting showing how chiplets change the equation on adding different types of memory to products. It allows designers to trade off cost and performance characteristic with more knobs. MRAM, NOR, DRAM, all on the same chip in the desired proportion with different processes.

Our presentation is “Memory Technologies : How Chiplets Change Everything”

FMS OMEM-203-1 Heterogeneous Solutions for Performance Session - Wed Aug 7, 3:00pm - 4:05pm Ballroom C

 

That said, we need to reiterate the opinion, backed by data, that emerging memories will not emerge to any material impact on the DRAM or NAND Market. Unlike some peoples predictions, the emerging memory market will not be $30B or even $3B in the next 5-10 years. It is well below $300M today

 

Emerging memories are possible in 3 areas:

• Niche products (which we will show can be integrated in a chiplet product)

• Embedded In a foundry process from TSMC or Global or Intel

• High volume  IF they require minimal (<10% of steps) changes to a NAND or DRAM flow.

 

Fourth Option:  They stagnate due to technical issues and lack of demand.

Costs for Memory Technologies

Quick Summary:

MRAM (STT): Available today. In embedded, replacement for E-flash if you need advanced process and embedded memory. Niche applications as discrete. Those applications will increase with chiplet use.

RRAM: Available today. May scale differently than MRAM and typically is slower. But has applications depending on cost scaling. Embedded, Chiplets, Niche applications. Some AI weighting use

PCM (1T1R): Available today.This is lower density (<1Gbyte). A technology that 50+ years old …. Typically used by companies who love PCM (ST, IBM, Micron) as they have decades of history of characterization.

Crosspoint technologies (1TnR): Optane fully developed the worlds best and most dense “faster than NAND, cheaper than DRAM” technology. The economics didn’t work and the demand was 10x lower than anticipated. Intel and Micron gave it a huge effort and we all appreciate the attempt. It’s not clear how to get these technologies to high volume IF they worked well.

FeRAM (high density): Was a potential future due to ability to integrate with DRAM flow. However all memory companies worked extensively on Hf based FeRAM products since 2020 and none were productized due to a variety of reasons.

Other New Materials: UltraRAM, New PCM materials, New RRAM materials/companies etc: These are possible but are 10 years from potential production. Unless implemented with 3D DRAM in 2028-2030, these are lower probability at this point. Our presentation on our website of  “Memory technology Product Lifecycle” give detailed timeline of how new memories come to production

 

Summary: There is no universal memory coming. We have SRAM, DRAM, NAND, NOR, MRAM, RRAM, PCM available today. Lets focus on integrating those as embedded or in chiplets.

I will be in Santa Clara Aug 5-8. Call or text to set up meetings at FMS or by Zoom. We will host some Zoom sessions during the conference timeframe. I can address all of the technologies one by one with costs and applications

Lots More info on our website www.mkwventures.com

Mark Webb

MKW Ventures Consulting LLC

www.mkwventures.com

 

FIVE fun facts on HBM memory

 

                 As with all hot topics, there are facts and myths. Five HBM Facts:

•       HBM volume is increasing. It was 2% of bits and 11% of revenue. This will grow to approximately 10% of bits over the next 4 years based on current models. The supply growth has to be relatively steady (capacity/designs are HBM specific), but the demand growth will be wildly variable. There are impacts from this supply and demand disconnect.

•           HBM cost is ~3x DDR5 Cost (our model is 3.5x but who is counting?). HBM price is ~6x DDR5 Price. Gross margin per wafer, margin per COS, margin per revenue is higher. Due to overhead of HBM specific designs, testing, and manufacturing, Operating margin can be challenging and needs to be managed.

•       HBM is stacked, packaged, and tested as a unit before going to customer or their contractor for assembly in CoWoS/Foveros type assembly. The packaging of HBM is typically done by the memory company or their contractor. Some recent “cartoons” seem to show memory chip stacking as part of CoWoS process. It is not.

•       In Advanced Datacenter AI systems, Most of the memory bits are still DDR and most of the cost is now processor/HBM module (SemiAnalysis did a very nice presentation on all the details).

•       I think everyone would agree that HBM is THE competitive focus of all memory companies. Current APPROXIMATE models show Hynix with 55% share, Samsung with 35% share and Micron with less than 10% share. The battle to change these numbers is on with Micron looking to double its share and Samsung looking to take its historical position at #1. These battles will cause wild fluctuation in market share and pricing and revenue. You have been warned

 

We have all the numbers on price, cost, revenue and bit volumes. Contact us to discuss more

 

Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com

Intel ACTUAL Plans for Survival, Foundry, and Recovery (UPDATED)

 

Intel ACTUAL Plans for Survival, Foundry, and Recovery

Updated: Intel announced capex cut yesterday 2/21/23. This essentially will confirm my previous capex forecast made 1 year ago. 

• Intel has made many aggressive commitments and strategy changes on new business model 

o   IDM2.0. Commitment to have large (#2 overall) wafer foundry business

o   Upgrade all existing sites for Intel 7,4,3. ADD 6 to 8 new fabs for foundry

o   5 nodes in 4 years. So far Intel have delivered 1 node in 2 years so now we need 4 nodes in 2 years (4,3,20,18)

·        Intel cash flow, market share loss and overall soft market is making those plans impossible

o   Intel historically does not lose money and does not have negative FCF. They do now

o   This makes funding fabs even with subsidies and JV partnerships difficult.

o   When the smoke clears we will see that semiconductor spending increased in 2022, and 2023 decrease for year as whole will be less than 5%. But Intel share losses and lack of growth in new areas has cut revenue and eliminated profit and positive cash flow

o   Intel is outsourcing more chips than ever to lower costs. Meteor Lake and Granite Rapids products are mostly non-Intel chips

o   End result is that Intel doesn’t need ANY new Fabs for Internal work and is not a priority for equipment vendors.

·        The public plan stated is unlikely to be what will actually happen. What we expect (Most of this was predicted in early 2022):

o   Intel will tool out and expand Arizona, Oregon, Ireland and Israel Fabs for Intel 7,4,3

o   Intel will complete and tool out 1 new Fab in Arizona by 2024. The other Arizona Fab will not be tooled out until demand is shown. This may lead to Intel payments to Brookfield Capital and tension in their relationship per contract details

o   Ohio will be “slow walked” with a new timeline and new milestones.

o   Other announced sites and factories will be “dependent on macro trends”

o   Macro has almost nothing to do with it. It will be dependent on whether Intel can develop a competitive GAA technology and have internal and foundry demand to fill the factory. Macro is a +/- 5% impact. Intel execution is +/- 30% impact on revenue.

o   Intel Foundry “Commitments” are <1 Fab right now. It is not clear how they increase commitments

·        We show what potential scenarios are with the most likely scenario detailed for you

o   Intels new Capex plans aligns with the fab roadmap strategy we will show

·         While Intel IDM2.0 strategy is not likely to be successful based on current data, Intel will recover to be a successful company again by focusing on where they ACTUALLY add value (This will be just like the IBM Journey 10-20 years ago)

·        Most importantly, we tell you how you can track progress and changes to strategy yourself over time

JOIN OUR ZOOM MEETING. We discuss details and questions on what will happen in the next 1-5 years

Intel Future: Tuesday 2/21 3PM Pacific Time  (30 Minutes+questions)

   828 0396 9706 Passcode 021289

Intel Future: Wed 2/22 5:30PM Pacific Time (30 Minutes)

817 1243 6496 Passcode 773007

 

We are free to meet by zoom or in person in San Francisco. text us for a appointment

 

Mark Webb

MKW Ventures Consulting

www.mkwventures.com

Memory Market Collapse: Cause, Timeline to recovery, What the new margins will be

 

Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting will be at ISSCC Feb 19-23

We will be having meetings with people and providing updates to partners and clients. 

We are also hosting two different Zoom meetings (with multiple times) on two hot topics in the industry right now. see times below

 Memory Market Collapse. The worst downturn in 10+ years, but it will recover

Topics:

Memory is always up and down. We can show how cyclical behavior is actually predictable and can be modeled with an excel macro. What is different this time is the magnitude of the drop. It has become one of the worst downturns of all time. 

ASPs down 30-40%. Bits are down YoY (this is extremely rare)

Revenue drop combined with previously committed Capex causing huge free cash flow problems

When the smoke clears we will find that a 10% end user consumer drop from forecast caused a 50% revenue drop. Why did this happen and how could we have prevented it.

When it will recover (It will recover) .... and when the next shortage will be (it will be a major shortage)

Reminder: Memory and other semiconductors markets are COMPLETELY different in behavior. We can discuss how to treat those markets differently

When will we recover? Why was this so bad? What will the new margins be after recovery? Bring questions, we have answers

Zoom:

Memory Market: Tuesday 2/21 2PM Pacific time (30 Minutes plus Questions)

   828 0396 9706 Passcode 021289

Memory Market: Wed 2/22 5PM Pacific Time (30 Minutes)

817 1243 6496 Passcode 773007

We also have a second Zoom call (follows the time of the Memory call). It will cover

Intel ACTUAL Plans for Survival, Foundry, and Recovery

We are free to meet by zoom or in person in San Francisco. text us for a appointment

Mark Webb

MKW Ventures Consulting

www.mkwventures.com

Mark Webb MKW Ventures at ISSCC Feb 19-23

 Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting will be at ISSCC Feb 19-23

We will be having meetings with people and providing updates to partners and clients. 

To schedule a meeting please text us at the phone number below

We are also hosting two different Zoom meetings (with multiple times) on two hot topics in the industry right now. see times below

1) Memory Market Collapse. The worst downturn in 10+ years, but it will recover

Why it was totally preventable

Why does a 10% consumer demand drop lead to a 50% revenue drop

When it will recover (It will recover) .... and when the next shortage will be (it will be a big shortage)

Reminder: Memory and other semiconductors markets are COMPLETELY different in behavior

Memory Market: Tuesday 2/21 2PM Pacific time (30 Minutes plus Questions)

   828 0396 9706 Passcode 021289

Memory Market: Wed 2/22 5PM Pacific Time (30 Minutes)

817 1243 6496 Passcode 773007

2) Intel ACTUAL Plans for Survival, Foundry, and Recovery

Intel has made many aggressive commitments, plans, and strategic changes

Intel cash flow, market share loss and overall soft market is making those plans impossible

The public plan stated is unlikely to be what will actually happen.

We show what potential scenarios are with the most likely scenario detailed for you

Most importantly, we tell you how you can track progress and changes to strategy

Intel Future: Tuesday 2/21 3PM Pacific Time  (30 Minutes+questions)

   828 0396 9706 Passcode 021289

Intel Future: Wed 2/22 5:30PM Pacific Time (30 Minutes)

817 1243 6496 Passcode 773007

We are free to meet by zoom or in person in San Francisco. text us for a appointment

Mark Webb

MKW Ventures Consulting

www.mkwventures.com