Monday, August 8, 2022

Memory Costs Through 2030

 At 2022 FMS we showed costs for all memories including Emerging through 2030.

We have details in spreadsheets by company and the reasons for the cost trends and scenarios to watch for if things change in the future. Call or text for more info

All presentations are on our website www.mkwventures.com




Number do not include packaging , test, and some access overhead. We have those details in the spreadsheet as well

Monday, August 1, 2022

When Will NAND/SSD Costs Be Lower than HDD?

 This is the age old questions with the assumption that HDD will stop scaling and NAND will scale quickly

The answer is 2034! Maybe!

The HDD has a few tricks to pull out and NAND is not scaling like it used to.

We have details on this and DRAM, MRAM, ReRAM, etc at FMS 2022






Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com




Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Optane Future and Implications for Emerging Memory

 


UPDATED: Optane persistent memory has been in mass production for years now and provides large memory pools and persistent memory for many applications. In many aspects, it is exactly what we wanted from emerging memories when they were just a goal 10+ years ago.





UPDATED:

The memory is faster than NAND and cheaper than DRAM

High density

Non-volatile

Intel has multiple products and is heavily marketing it.

It sells more bits than all other emerging memories combined

Its could be defined as "wildly successful"

But Intel officially CANCELLED it after months or rumors. The world most successful Emerging memory failed. 

It did not Fail due to lack of money, lack of ecosystem, lack of support, or technical issues. It died because the market does not support advanced new memory tier. Less than 5% of servers planned to use the PMEM. 

If the world most successful emerging memory, with 100s of millions of dollars in sales and billions in investment is killed despite meeting goals, what does this mean for other emerging memories and future technologies. We will discuss at FMS 2022

    • OMEM-202-2, MRAM/PCM session 
    • Wednesday, August 3 4:45pm - 5:50pm 
Please call or text to discuss Optane and other Emerging Memories in detail in a 1:1 Sessions

Mark Webb





Monday, July 25, 2022

Mark Webb MKW Ventures Consulting at FMS 2022

 



We will be at Flash Memory Summit Aug 1-4 with Presentations and discussions on multiple memory areas. 





The future of Emerging memory markets including Optane will show how the market is much different than we believed 5 years ago. A second presentation will show costs for all memory technologies including DRAM, NAND, MRAM, Optane, ReRam through 2030!


Presentations

A New Scenario for Emerging Memories and Markets

We have a number of viable memory technologies in Optane, MRAM, and ReRAM that are capable of production. However all have struggled to meet their growth goals financially. This includes Optane which has 100s of millions in revenue but appears to no longer be part of Intel's long term goals and is not releasing new technologies. MRAM products are out but not growing at a significant pace. Embedded is a great possibility but that is part or the foundry business. What should existing memory technologies and future memory technologies focus on?


Scaling and Cost Forecast for DRAM, NAND, and Emerging Memories

We show Scaling plans and cost for DRAM and NAND technologies and present models for Emerging memory costs. DRAM and NAND will continue to scale though 2030 and costs will continue to reduce. Companies will make pragmatic decisions on how much to scale and when. Optane, ReRAM, MRAM will scale but cannot compete on cost with NAND or DRAM long term. We show costs over time for all of these and what the implications are of the cost trends. Our cost overview shows trends but we have detailed company by company costs for follow up discussions.

Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com






Sunday, December 12, 2021

MRAM Update from IEDM and Zoom Call

 


Mark Webb, MKW VENTURES CONSULTING at IEDM, San Francisco Hilton Dec 11-15th

ZOOM CALL Sunday and Monday evening





QUICK update MRAM

MRAM:

Embedded MRAM is officially in the "It works, we implemented it, and now we need to optimize it for each application". This is true maturity working with each customer for what they need and what they will pay for. 

1) Replace embedded flash (This should have happened long ago). e-Flash at any geometry is neither optimal for performance nor optimal for cost. e-Flash (which i worked on years ago) is a "its all we got, so we are stuck" technology. MRAM and possibly RRAM to the rescue

2) Replace/Augment Last Level Cache. Its not really cheaper or better than SRAM for pure cache yet... but it is within optimization timeframe (2 years). It needs to be about 30% smaller than current, and it needs to give up some retention for Bit error rate (BER) and speed .... but it is a possible option depending on applications

Discrete MRAM has made some progress with STT at Everspin but it is still a small market until we can show significant improvement over  NOR and DRAM/SRAM


We have a presentation and Zoom call covering new emerging memories.

**** Sunday 12/12 from 6PM to 630PM Pacific time AND

**** Monday 12/13 from 5:30-6PM Pacific time

**** ZOOM Meeting ID: 811 2666 3619     ZOOM Passcode  481708

We can also meet 1:1 or in a small group during the conference. Just text.

Topics:

* Emerging Memory Product Lifecycle: What steps are needed to deliver production memories and where does each memory stand? How can we tell whether a technology is 15 years from success or 2 years.  Note: Memories take 10+ years to mature, 90% don’t make it

* Revenue and scenarios for future for Optane/3DXPoint. Where are we today and what are the three possible scenarios for 5 years from now.

**the scenarios are named “I am so Proud”, “Groundhog Day”, and “I Won” **


* Revenue and projections for MRAM. Embedded and discrete.

* ReRAM status and challenges

* Status of other memories



 

Mark Webb

WWW.MKWVENTURES.COM

https://mkwventures-semi.blogspot.com/

https://mkwventures-nand.blogspot.com/


Friday, December 10, 2021

Emerging Memory Presentation at IEDM and Zoom Info

 


Mark Webb, MKW VENTURES CONSULTING at IEDM, San Francisco Hilton Dec 11-15th

 

We will be at International Electron Device Meeting  Saturday 12/11 to Wed 12/15

We will be attending sessions and short courses



We have a presentation and Zoom call covering new emerging memories.

**** Sunday 12/12 from 6PM to 630PM Pacific time AND

**** Monday 12/13 from 5:30-6PM Pacific time

**** ZOOM Meeting ID: 811 2666 3619     ZOOM Passcode  481708

We can also meet 1:1 or in a small group during the conference. Just text.

Topics:

* Emerging Memory Product Lifecycle: What steps are needed to deliver production memories and where does each memory stand? How can we tell whether a technology is 15 years from success or 2 years.  Note: Memories take 10+ years to mature, 90% don’t make it

* Revenue and scenarios for future for Optane/3DXPoint. Where are we today and what are the three possible scenarios for 5 years from now.

**the scenarios are named “I am so Proud”, “Groundhog Day”, and “I Won” **


* Revenue and projections for MRAM. Embedded and discrete.

* ReRAM status and challenges

* Status of other memories



 

Mark Webb

WWW.MKWVENTURES.COM

https://mkwventures-semi.blogspot.com/

https://mkwventures-nand.blogspot.com/

Monday, December 6, 2021

Emerging Memories.... whats next?

 


New Memory Technologies …. Next stop? …. The Trough? The Moon? Other?

We have a report and will have an upcoming Zoom call similar to my Emerging memory update from Flash memory summit. This will be timed in parallel with IEDM so we can review latest info. We will identify where each memory stands in the New Memory Product Lifecycle (there are 10 different stages that go from concept to mass production) and projected revenue for each technology.



A quick update and preview:

1)     DRAM and NAND are ramping as fast as anytime in the past 5 years. No Brick wall coming, No replacement is planned. I am convinced DRAM and NAND will be around when I am long gone.

2)     Only two “new memories” have significant volume in bits

a.      3D Xpoint/Optane. More bits sold than all other new memories combined.

b.      Toggle and STT-MRAM: discrete Sales growing, embedded available from multiple foundries

3)     ReRam: lots of work, lots of issues identified. Similar performance to 3D XPoint, No revenue for densities over 1Mbit.

4)     Promising technologies: SOT MRAM, FE-RAM/FET… still promising.

The Challenges and Predictions

MRAM is ideal for embedded NVM and is steadily growing for discrete. What next?

3D XPoint is available to anyone who wants it today. But it is not growing, not game changing yet, not protecting Intel’s datacenter market yet. Is Intel still spending money on it? Is Intel adding capacity? Why did Micron abandon it? We have answers to where 3D Xpoint will be in 1,3,10 years.

Other Technologies are still path to eventually detailed Mbit+ array characterization

So, Personally, I am in the “Trough of Disillusionment” along with many Emerging memories IMHO. Now I am predicting what the Enlightenment will bring which we will present next week.


Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com