Intel Broke ground on 2 new fabs in Arizona last week. They plan to open fabs in 2024 and spend $20B over the next 3 years to complete them.
Intel is making big announcements on Fab capacity to grow the company and its foundry operations. Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger has done a great job of boldly stating where he wants Intel to be.
Unfortunately, Intel may find reality is a little different. We think Intel will not complete and ramp these fabs as planned and that the capex will be high but short of what Intel has announced. This isn't Pat's fault. It is just that ramping a foundry business is a 10 year plan, not a 3 year plan even if you have great press conferences.
Actual Capex will average 19.5B per year including all of the announcements in 2021. This is 4B higher than previous 4 year average.
Intel Fab 52/62 will start at reduced capacity and most likely with delayed openings. We expect 25K wafers per month in 2025 timeframe.
We have actual loadings, capex, costs and technologies for each year and comparisons of Intel vs TSMC technologies and costs. We also have effects of government incentives and what Intel is hoping for going forward.
Call us for more info a bullet summary with numbers.
Mark Webb
