Simplified HDD and SSD number for 2023

 With all the hype related to the downturn in compute and storage and the hype for future growth, I want to review what the breakdown looks like today and what it will look like in 2025

Couple introductions for our analysis

We focus on EBs shipped. Units are not useful other than to look at why EBs shifted. 

As the numbers will show, there are large differences between SSD and HDD. As a result, the key is to focus on high level view, not the details. We have data on details as well but it is more difficult to extract from company reports.

Enterprise/Cloud/Hyperscale ("datacenter" , non-client) is the market to focus on. HDDs are becoming niche market players in other markets. SSD have the best growth potential in datacenter. In this market servers typically have HDDs and SSDs attached.... but they exist at about a 9:1 ratio and there is no drive for widespread HDD replacement. 

HDD total EBs are shown. The data indicates that 85% of the HDD bits are Nearline (Datacenter).

eSSD is all datacenter SSDs (non-client)

Spoiler Alert: SSDs are growing. But they are nowhere near to becoming dominant overall. SSD EBs will not out-ship HDD EBs in the next 10 years. SSDs are dominant in the client space, but are a fraction of the bits shipped in the Datacenter space. 

In the period from 2019-2025. The INCREASE in HDD bits is higher than the TOTAL  bits shipped for ALL SSDs. HDD is not going away ... but is will be 90% nearline by then

2023 will be a downturn in total for all storage

2025 will be a peak and show the return to growth

Source: TrendFocus, Trendforce, Statista, MKW Ventures

Mark Webb

MKW Ventures Consulting

www.mkwventures.com

Mark Webb MKW Ventures Consulting at Flash Memory Summit

 

We will have multiple presentations at Flash Memory Summit Aug 8-10 2023

Text to set up meeting in person or by Zoom

First Presentation: BKMT-101-1, Tuesday 830AM Room GAMR1

2023 Memory Downturn, Recovery, Causes and Effects

We show the cause and effects of the current downturn in the memory markets. This downturn includes the first YoY decrease in bit sales in market history and massive losses by memory companies.

The data will show that this was not due to massive consumer market collapse but due to excessive inventory and unreasonable planning by memory companies. The end result will be that total bits shipped 2020-2023 will be the SAME amount we predicted in 2019. Unfortunately, the price collapse caused by excessive supply is lost income for the memory companies that cannot be recovered

When will it recover? What will the recovery look like? How can we take simple steps to prevent this in the future? We have the answers!

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   

Second Presentation OMEM-201-1. Wednesday 830AM Ballroom E

Emerging Memory: The Calm After the Storm

“Emerging memories” are not really emerging. Some are here. Some have peaked and are now planning  their way out. Some are in research but are 10 years from revenue. They are also not “disruptive memories”. They are not replacing DRAM or NAND. Maybe NOR ... but no Christensen effect coming soon

We now have a calm after the “Optane”, “replace NAND”, “replace DRAM” storm. 

MRAM, ReRAM, PC-RAM, FeRAM are here today. They have applications where they are optimal and where they can grow. The technologies are being integrated into foundry processes. With Chiplet technology, you can put them on a module and flex the amount of memory used. What are the best uses and most cost effective applications? We present some ideas.

Revenue from “Emerging memory” will never be $30B+ as predicted by some other analysts. it will be 10x smaller than that. Specific applications will allow revenue to steadily grow to over a billion in the next several years.

 

Contact Mark to set up in person or zoom meetings to discuss Memory Markets and Emerging Memory

Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com