Thursday, February 16, 2023

Memory Market Collapse: Cause, Timeline to recovery, What the new margins will be

 


Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting will be at ISSCC Feb 19-23

We will be having meetings with people and providing updates to partners and clients. 


We are also hosting two different Zoom meetings (with multiple times) on two hot topics in the industry right now. see times below


 Memory Market Collapse. The worst downturn in 10+ years, but it will recover

Topics:

Memory is always up and down. We can show how cyclical behavior is actually predictable and can be modeled with an excel macro. What is different this time is the magnitude of the drop. It has become one of the worst downturns of all time. 

ASPs down 30-40%. Bits are down YoY (this is extremely rare)

Revenue drop combined with previously committed Capex causing huge free cash flow problems

When the smoke clears we will find that a 10% end user consumer drop from forecast caused a 50% revenue drop. Why did this happen and how could we have prevented it.

When it will recover (It will recover) .... and when the next shortage will be (it will be a major shortage)

Reminder: Memory and other semiconductors markets are COMPLETELY different in behavior. We can discuss how to treat those markets differently

When will we recover? Why was this so bad? What will the new margins be after recovery? Bring questions, we have answers


Zoom:

Memory Market: Tuesday 2/21 2PM Pacific time (30 Minutes plus Questions)

   828 0396 9706 Passcode 021289

Memory Market: Wed 2/22 5PM Pacific Time (30 Minutes)

817 1243 6496 Passcode 773007


We also have a second Zoom call (follows the time of the Memory call). It will cover

Intel ACTUAL Plans for Survival, Foundry, and Recovery



We are free to meet by zoom or in person in San Francisco. text us for a appointment


Mark Webb

MKW Ventures Consulting

www.mkwventures.com




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