HBM Memory Future: Technology, Cost, and Market Size (FMS)

We are presenting this week on HBM market, Pricing and Costs

 HBM Memory Future: Technology, Cost, and Market Size

DRAM-302-1: HBM: DRAM's Bright Future. Thursday 8/7 9:45

We will show HBM market growth predictions and Scenarios, Technologies and Costs. Also show how to detect and respond when the market corrects and the hype turns negative

Some Key Points:

1) Market has grown 100% CAGR in 2024 and 2025 to $33B in Revenue

2) CAGR will slow to 20% for next two years and then grow at longer term rate of 25%

3) With capacity additions the market dynamic will change from severe shortage to more sufficient

4) Gross Margins for HBM currently in 70% range

5) Costs will increase due to technology on HBM4 but that increase will be offset somewhat with improvements in manufacturing and scale

Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com

Future Scenarios for Emerging Memory Markets (FMS 2025)

 

Future Scenarios for Emerging Memory Markets

OMEM-202-1: Emerging Memory Technologies. Wed 8/6 9:45AM

We show the status today for memories (RRAM, MRAM, PCM, FRAM) and what will happen in the near future. Spoiler alert, There is only ONE new memory that COULD be a major impactor in the next 3-5 years. We show how to monitor progress on all memories.

 

Key Takeaways:

1. The “Classic” emerging memories RRAM, MRAM, PCM, FE RAM are running and being used in low volume (<$100M Sales) markets as discrete products. They are also used in foundry technologies replacing eFLASH
2. The “New Breakthrough” emerging memories are quite early in their development cycle (we give exact timelines all memories must go through in our product life cycle report). Single cell reports with great latency and 10^9 type cycling levels. Until we see a 1Mbit+ array with all performance and bit error rates, These are still  8 years from any possible volume and most likely will not be shipping any units.
3. As predicted, the only technology with a possibility sell $1B worth of units in annually in 5 years must be close to (90% the same steps) of an existing NAND or DRAM process. It must also be within 50% of the cost of the technology.
• This appears to be the plan with FE NVDRAM as reported by Micron in technical papers and more recently by FMC in announcements. All companies are working on this technology
• FE technology, tied to a DRAM process, with tools similar to other high volume tools
• The key is to see detailed array data and then a real product we can buy ASAP
4. A new way to look at this revenue is by submarket, not to lump all emerging memory into one market. We break out these new memory markets

Summary: MRAM, RRAM, PCM and small FE arrays emerged a while ago. “New” memories are far from showing the required large array data. FE DRAM has large memory data and the manufacturability needed to become a high volume product

 Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com

 

MKW Ventures Consulting at FMS Conference this week

  We are at Future of Memory and Storage Conference in Santa Clara This week. Please text to set up meetings or discussions. 

 We have two Presentations this week plus the Experts Table night.

1) Future Scenarios for Emerging Memory Markets

OMEM-202-1: Emerging Memory Technologies. Wed 8/6 9:45AM

We show the status today for memories (RRAM, MRAM, PCM, FRAM) and what will happen in the near future. Spoiler alert, There is only one new memory that COULD be an major impactor in the next 3-5 years. We show how to monitor progress on all memories.

2) HBM Memory Future: Technology, Cost, and Market Size

DRAM-302-1: HBM: DRAM's Bright Future. Thursday 8/7 9:45

We will show HBM market growth predictions and Scenarios, Technologies and Costs. Also show how to detect and respond when the market corrects and the hype turns negative

In NON-MEMORY areas. We are sharing models with clients for how Intel corporation can rebuild into a new successful company and how our predicted scenarios for Intel Foundry played out. The new Intel CEO will re-make Intel into a new company, not try to reclaim the 1990s Intel. We can review how this will play out for Intel

See all our presentations and data at www.mkwventures.com

Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com