Intel Foundry Forecast Dec 2024 (Mark Webb, MKW Ventures Consulting,
www.mkwventures.com
Last December, We published a forecast for Intel wafer sales to external customers. Many people thought it was pessimistic since it showed Intel wouldn't be a top 15 wafer foundry until late 2024 and wouldn't be a Top 5 wafer foundry until 2028. We updated based on Intel financial statements
Intel somehow had negative growth in external foundry in 2024. Not sure how this happened but we can expect that this fact led to reorganization at the foundry group.
Our new graph reflects this reality and they fact that Intel is not expecting any significant sales growth for at least another year. We also adjusted for the delay that happened to Arizona and the delay announced to Ohio.
No growth in 2024. Limited growth in 2025. Fast growth in 2026 and 2027 and then growth based on Intel internal capacity vs external capacity. Note: this is IF Intel executes to current plans as of December 2024.
We also updated scenarios on how likely Intel Plans are to come true now that Pat has left.
The Challenges are the same: Intel is technically capable. But Intel has cost issues if they ramp as planned and they have been very slow to add real customers with real wafer start plans.
We are at IEDM 2023 Dec 7-10 to discuss how we update this model each month. Call or text to set up meeting.
Mark Webb
