Emerging Memories.... whats next?

 

New Memory Technologies …. Next stop? …. The Trough? The Moon? Other?

We have a report and will have an upcoming Zoom call similar to my Emerging memory update from Flash memory summit. This will be timed in parallel with IEDM so we can review latest info. We will identify where each memory stands in the New Memory Product Lifecycle (there are 10 different stages that go from concept to mass production) and projected revenue for each technology.

A quick update and preview:

1)     DRAM and NAND are ramping as fast as anytime in the past 5 years. No Brick wall coming, No replacement is planned. I am convinced DRAM and NAND will be around when I am long gone.

2)     Only two “new memories” have significant volume in bits

a.      3D Xpoint/Optane. More bits sold than all other new memories combined.

b.      Toggle and STT-MRAM: discrete Sales growing, embedded available from multiple foundries

3)     ReRam: lots of work, lots of issues identified. Similar performance to 3D XPoint, No revenue for densities over 1Mbit.

4)     Promising technologies: SOT MRAM, FE-RAM/FET… still promising.

The Challenges and Predictions

MRAM is ideal for embedded NVM and is steadily growing for discrete. What next?

3D XPoint is available to anyone who wants it today. But it is not growing, not game changing yet, not protecting Intel’s datacenter market yet. Is Intel still spending money on it? Is Intel adding capacity? Why did Micron abandon it? We have answers to where 3D Xpoint will be in 1,3,10 years.

Other Technologies are still path to eventually detailed Mbit+ array characterization

So, Personally, I am in the “Trough of Disillusionment” along with many Emerging memories IMHO. Now I am predicting what the Enlightenment will bring which we will present next week.

Mark Webb

www.mkwventures.com